Last term I gave a short talk to English teachers of pre-13 year-olds who had come for the day to Radley (where I was then teaching). I promised them the slides of that talk — and my apologies for the inordinate delay: I had thought copyright issues were all straightforward, but some slides needed to be sifted or checked, and then I got caught up in finishing one job, moving and starting another. The slides are here (right-click and 'Save as', or click and open with PowerPoint).
After two initial slides which (I imagine) speak for themselves and set the context for what I wanted to say about the rate of technological change and education, I went on to draw a simple contrast between the rate of change when printing began and the rate of digital technological change now. Back in January of last year (2006), Professor Kevin Sharpe (Queen Mary College, London) appeared on In Our Time, 'Print Culture in Seventeenth Century England' (Radio 4, 29.1.06). He gave these estimates for the number of books (titles) appearing per year in England after the advent of printing (Gutenberg 1454, Caxton 1477):
During Henry VIII’s time, about 80
By the end of the sixteenth century: 250 to 300
In the 1630s: c 600
Eve of Civil War: c 2000 (1641), 4000 (1642)
Remainder of seventeenth century (particularly the 1680s): c 3000
(For an alternative view on the early days of printing and the number of titles in circulation throughout Europe just a short time after its invention, see John H Lienhard's essay, What people said about books in 1498. I tried to contact Professor Sharpe for his response to Lienhard's essay, but was unsuccessful. Now I'm in London I shall try again and hope to come back to this topic.) I then contrasted this with some of the history of digital change: I used some of the shots from the CNET News' piece on Making the first disk drive (eg, 'Bill Healy, executive vice president at Hitachi, holds up a platter from a 1-inch microdrive in his right hand. In his left is a 24-inch platter from IBM's RAMAC [Random Access Method of Accounting and Control], which came out 50 years ago'), the Moore's Law page from Intel, a BBC piece — Twenty-five years of the IBM PC, the posting of computer code for the WWW in August, 1991 and early 1992 … along with various statistics illustrating the rate of growth of some key sites (the usual suspects), a look at the impact on broadcasting, newspapers … the impact of mobile technology, ubiquitous computing … (All data relating to viewing/usage statistics stems from the middle of last year or thereabouts.)
Sandwiched in the middle of my talk are some slides I've had reason to use before: Tim Berners-Lee on how the web was always read/write; Will Richardson's list of seven Web 2.0 "things" teachers and schools need to address; the now well-known Prensky digital natives/digital immigrants distinction; and a quotation that is thought to be from Howard Rheingold (but which we still cannot source). Towards the end, I wanted also to throw out some hooks to John Seely Brown's work and there was time to hint at some of the ways in which we are beginning to discover and use social media in education.
***As the sorting out of my slides dragged on and I procrastinated, I collected two snippets from other blogs by way of illustrating more about the changes afoot and to come.
1) Last November, John Naughton posted The Rise of Freeconomics:
Lovely post by Chris Anderson (he of Long Tail fame)…
It’s a big day [26 November] for Moore’s Law. I’m not sure anyone else has noticed this, but by my calculations we have in the past few months reached the penny-per-MIPS* milestone. Intel’s Core Duo running at 2.13 GHz now costs around $200 at retail (it’s around $180 at volume), but can do about 20,000 MIPS. I remember my first 6 MHz 286 PC in 1982 that did 0.9 MIPS. I have no idea what the CPU cost then, but the PC it came in cost nearly $3,000 so it couldn’t have been cheap. Say it was around $1,000/MIPS back then. Now it’s $0.01/MIPS. I know I shouldn’t be astounded by Moore’s Law anymore, but that really is something.
Good Morning Silicon Valley picked up on this and added an interesting quote from Alec Saunders, who added some extra historical perspective:
In 1977, Digital Equipment’s Vax 11/780 was a 1 MIPS minicomputer, and the Cray-1 supercomputer delivered blindingly fast execution at 150 MIPS.
By 1982, 5 years later, a 6 MHz 286 had about the same equivalent processing power as the Vax.
Sometime in the mid 1990’s, Cray’s benchmark was finally passed on PowerPC processors, as PowerMac’s emerged benchmarked at 150 to 300 MIPS.
A 1999 era Pentium III/500 delivered 800 MIPS of processing power.
A year later, in 2000, the Playstation 2 pumped out an astounding 6000 MIPS.
My 2002 vintage Athlon XP clocks in at 4200 MIPS.
And today, for about $200, you can buy a 20,000 MIPS processor.
*Note for non-geeks: MIPS stands for “million instructions per second”, a standard measure of CPU power.
2) In the same month, Bruno Giussani:
Running notes from the second European Futurists Conference in Lucerne (Switzerland).
Walter Hehl of IBM Research - he works at the Zürich/Rüschlikon lab - presents some of the results of IBM's Global Technology Outlook 2006, a "vision of the future" report that's updated annually. Charts and graphs and IBM lingo ("the power of modularity"). A few jots:
- Moore's Law will continue to be relevant (with some problems)
- Computer's power consumption and heat are key issues; IBM has a program to design "green data centers" - data centers with low-power consumption.
- Chips transitioning to nanotechnology and "self-assembly"
- Videogames are becoming technical drivers (chip development, etc)
- All objects will get IDs (and homepages). So what's the next step after everything is connected?
- That will create an "event-driven world", and we will need software to make sense of this huge mass of continuous events
- Software will increasingly structure work and organizations
- The evolution of software will accelerate. I don't see an end for the complexity of software
- Real and virtual worlds will overlap (Sam Palmisano, IBM's CEO, held a meeting in Second Life recently, and IBM announced a USD 10 million investment in SL and 3D intranet)
And now, long-suffering attendees of last autumn's short talk, I can offer some compensation by updating things yet again. For in the last few weeks and days has come news of some amazing, Moore's Law-extending/defeating developments:
2007 HP nanotech design could be leap forward for chips
Today, HP scientists intend to announce they have created a new computer-chip design enabling an eightfold increase in the number of transistors on a chip, without making the transistors smaller. The scientists said their advance would equal a leap of three generations of Moore's Law, a prediction formulated in 1964 by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore that forecast chip makers could double the number of transistors on a chip every couple of years. "This is three generations of Moore's Law, without having to do all the research and development to shrink the transistors,'' said Stan Williams, a senior fellow at HP in Palo Alto. "If in some sense we can leapfrog three generations, that is something like five years of R&D. That is the potential of this breakthrough.''
Moore's Law Seen Extended In Chip Breakthrough
Intel Corp. and IBM have announced one of the biggest advances in transistors in four decades, overcoming a frustrating obstacle by ensuring microchips can get even smaller and more powerful. The breakthrough, achieved via separate research efforts and announced Friday, involves using an exotic new material to make transistors … "At the transistor level, we haven't changed the basic materials since the 1960s. So it's a real big breakthrough," said Dan Hutcheson, head of VLSI Research, an industry consultancy. "Moore's Law was coming to a grinding halt," he added … The latest breakthrough means Intel, IBM and others can proceed with technology roadmaps that call for the next generation of chips to be made with circuitry as small as 45 nanometers, about 1/2000th the width of a human hair. Intel said it will use the technology, based on a silvery metal called hafnium, in new processors coming out later this year …
Teraflops chip points to future
A chip with 80 processing cores and capable of more than a trillion calculations per second (teraflops) has been unveiled by Intel. The Teraflops chip is not a commercial release but could point the way to more powerful processors, said the firm. The chip achieves performance on a piece of silicon no bigger than a fingernail that 11 years ago required a machine with 10,000 chips inside it. The challenge is to find a way to program the many cores simultaneously.
Ian provides a good overview of what this means, couched in the kind of time spans that make sense to schools, and I'm going to leave you with David Warlick:
We must start talking about education from the perspective of digital citizens, our children, and the learning experiences that they need right now, to be ready to succeed and prosper in a world that is changing so fast …